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Acorn
Joined: 08 Dec 2005
Posts: 2649
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 Posted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 5:48 pm Post subject: Predictions? Cleveland State |
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Anyone want to predict the outcomes for tomorrow's game against Cleveland State?
90% final score differential range (range in which you'd expect the final score differential to fall nine out of ten times):
75% final score differential range:
50% final score differential range:
25% final score differential range:
Might be interesting to do this every game and keep track of who has the best-calibrated model of Davidson basketball. Over time, 90%-predicted events should occur 90% of the time, 75%-predicted events should occur 75 of the time, and so on. If you're regularly over- or under-estimating, then you need to adjust something.
My predictions:
90% final score differential range: Davidson +8 to Davidson +35
75% final score differential range: Davidson +15 to Davidson +30
50% final score differential range: Davidson +18 to Davidson +25
25% final score differential range: Davidson +20 to Davidson +24 |
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bobc
Joined: 11 Jun 2007
Posts: 1144
Location: Charlotte
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| Posted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:23 pm Post subject: |
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| Why should anyone on this board put up messages that can be used by other team to fire its team up by showing how Davidson fans feel about the opposition. In my opinion, we should block this type of posts--with all due respect. |
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cat44
Joined: 12 Jul 2012
Posts: 926
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| Posted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:31 pm Post subject: |
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| bobc wrote: | | Why should anyone on this board put up messages that can be used by other team to fire its team up by showing how Davidson fans feel about the opposition. In my opinion, we should block this type of posts--with all due respect. |
Come on, man. It's a message board. |
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wildforthecats
Joined: 30 Nov 2005
Posts: 18388
Location: Matthews NC
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| Posted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 6:32 pm Post subject: |
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| Trap game! |
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Acorn
Joined: 08 Dec 2005
Posts: 2649
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| Posted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 7:10 pm Post subject: |
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| In making my predictions, I estimated the effects of my predictions on the outcome itself. At zero. |
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HowYouDurinCats
Joined: 25 Feb 2018
Posts: 62
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| Posted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 7:25 pm Post subject: |
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| I would be happy if we score more points than our football team did. |
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tennis08tarheels
Joined: 09 Dec 2006
Posts: 3443
Location: Dallas, TX
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 3:59 am Post subject: |
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| bobc wrote: | | Why should anyone on this board put up messages that can be used by other team to fire its team up by showing how Davidson fans feel about the opposition. In my opinion, we should block this type of posts--with all due respect. |
Yikes. That's an... interesting opinion. |
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seamac77
Joined: 22 Mar 2008
Posts: 2694
Location: Morganton, NC
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:08 am Post subject: |
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| " Don't get cocky ! " |
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stevelee
Joined: 04 Mar 2010
Posts: 10005
Location: Davidson
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 8:53 am Post subject: |
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visibility 30 ft.
_________________
Μεγάλη ἡμÎÏα εἶναι ΛÏγξ |
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BDF
Joined: 24 Jan 2012
Posts: 4137
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:25 am Post subject: |
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| wildforthecats wrote: | | Trap game! |
This.
_________________
This is a post by BDF, not BDL. |
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BDF
Joined: 24 Jan 2012
Posts: 4137
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:30 am Post subject: |
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Cleveland St Coaches meeting today:
Head coach:
Okay, the last thing I need is for a volunteer to read the Davidson message board looking for bulletin board material. It needs to be someone who understands probability.
2nd Assistant Coach:
Already done, sir. A fellow named Acorn, puts our point differential at 8-35 with a 90% confidence level.
Head coach:
Well, if that doesn't fire us up, I don't know what will.
_________________
This is a post by BDF, not BDL. |
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Joneohcat83
Joined: 27 Feb 2012
Posts: 275
Location: Cooperstown, NY
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:01 pm Post subject: |
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| BDF wrote: | Cleveland St Coaches meeting today:
Head coach:
Okay, the last thing I need is for a volunteer to read the Davidson message board looking for bulletin board material. It needs to be someone who understands probability.
2nd Assistant Coach:
Already done, sir. A fellow named Acorn, puts our point differential at 8-35 with a 90% confidence level.
Head coach:
Well, if that doesn't fire us up, I don't know what will. |
Coffee spit
_________________
If it wasn't hard, everyone would do it. It's the hard that makes it great.
1285, 4186, 2 Belk West, Watts, Knox, Little |
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DC69Wildcat
Joined: 10 Dec 2006
Posts: 5057
Location: Concord, NC
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:04 pm Post subject: |
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| BDF wrote: | Cleveland St Coaches meeting today:
Head coach:
Okay, the last thing I need is for a volunteer to read the Davidson message board looking for bulletin board material. It needs to be someone who understands probability.
2nd Assistant Coach:
Already done, sir. A fellow named Acorn, puts our point differential at 8-35 with a 90% confidence level.
Head coach:
Well, if that doesn't fire us up, I don't know what will. |
_________________
"We should've thrown our number 7 pitcher against Davidson......" Post by Tar Heel baseball fan 16 minutes into the game. |
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slowcat95
Joined: 12 Sep 2016
Posts: 809
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:21 pm Post subject: |
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| Joneohcat83 wrote: | | BDF wrote: | Cleveland St Coaches meeting today:
Head coach:
Okay, the last thing I need is for a volunteer to read the Davidson message board looking for bulletin board material. It needs to be someone who understands probability.
2nd Assistant Coach:
Already done, sir. A fellow named Acorn, puts our point differential at 8-35 with a 90% confidence level.
Head coach:
Well, if that doesn't fire us up, I don't know what will. |
Coffee spit |
x2
_________________
The basic entrance fee to being a good person is to listen to and believe people who lack a privilege you have. |
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stevelee
Joined: 04 Mar 2010
Posts: 10005
Location: Davidson
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| Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 2:28 pm Post subject: |
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_________________
Μεγάλη ἡμÎÏα εἶναι ΛÏγξ |
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