No limit on stupid
Spicy deluxe (grilled or fried) is a good sammich.
Now back to stupid: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/19 ... -nba-crown
Cavs have the second-best chance? No way. GS, followed by Spurs, followed by Rockets. All three are comfortably better than the East champion. I just need Draymond to keep his boot out of the opponent's crotch. And for the Warriors to avoid big injuries.
Now back to stupid: http://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/19 ... -nba-crown
Cavs have the second-best chance? No way. GS, followed by Spurs, followed by Rockets. All three are comfortably better than the East champion. I just need Draymond to keep his boot out of the opponent's crotch. And for the Warriors to avoid big injuries.
"Here’s what is the elephant in the room. Travis had a bag before. Now everyone has a bag. The Travis Ford recruiting prowess was greatly exaggerated."---SLU fan explaining how NIL took away Ford's recruiting edge
Money bet on Cleveland has at least one BIG plus. The Cavs don't have to play GS or SA or Houston to reach the finals. At most they must beat one of the best four teams to win it all. SA or Houston will have to beat 3 of the 4. GS will have to beat 2.
Assuming Cleveland has an 80% chance of reaching the Eastern finals, and an 80% chance of winning the East if they reach the finals, and only a 40% chance of winning the title against one of the West's big 3, they have slightly better than a 25% chance to win it all.
Assuming SA and Houston have a 49% chance of reaching the Western finals, and a 40% chance of beating the Dubs in the West, and a 60% chance of winning the finals if they get there, they each have about a 12% chance to win it all.
Assuming GS has at least a 90% chance of getting to the Western finals and a 60% chance of winning the West if they reach the finals and a 60% chance of winning the finals if they get there, they have about a 33% chance to win it all.
Obviously one can quarrel with the assumptions used, but use any reasonable numbers you want and Cleveland has a better chance to win it all than do the western underdogs.
Assuming Cleveland has an 80% chance of reaching the Eastern finals, and an 80% chance of winning the East if they reach the finals, and only a 40% chance of winning the title against one of the West's big 3, they have slightly better than a 25% chance to win it all.
Assuming SA and Houston have a 49% chance of reaching the Western finals, and a 40% chance of beating the Dubs in the West, and a 60% chance of winning the finals if they get there, they each have about a 12% chance to win it all.
Assuming GS has at least a 90% chance of getting to the Western finals and a 60% chance of winning the West if they reach the finals and a 60% chance of winning the finals if they get there, they have about a 33% chance to win it all.
Obviously one can quarrel with the assumptions used, but use any reasonable numbers you want and Cleveland has a better chance to win it all than do the western underdogs.
You and I make very different assumptions about chances to reach and advance. My math has Cleveland with about the same chance as Boston to be champs, a slightly lesser chance than Houston to win it all, about half the chance that San Antonio has, and way less than Golden State's chance. Vegas says Golden State is 1-2, Cleveland is 7-2, and San Antonio is 9-1. I Don't see Cleveland with a better chance than San Antonio. And I don't see Boston and Houston at 20-1.
"Here’s what is the elephant in the room. Travis had a bag before. Now everyone has a bag. The Travis Ford recruiting prowess was greatly exaggerated."---SLU fan explaining how NIL took away Ford's recruiting edge
i77- I had Cleveland with a 64% chance of coming out of the East. Drop that to 50% and I still have them with a 20% chance of winning it all.
If you believe either SA or Houston has a 33% chance of winning the West (which seems high to me), and a 60% chance of winning it all if they reach the finals, then they each have less than a 20% chance to win it all.
If you believe either SA or Houston has a 33% chance of winning the West (which seems high to me), and a 60% chance of winning it all if they reach the finals, then they each have less than a 20% chance to win it all.
There is where our assumptions differ. I have Cleveland with a 45% of coming out of the East. Not too different from you. But you have them with a 40% chance of beating the West champion. I have them at 20%. They weren't just bad at the end of the season. They were horrible. This looks like GS or SA to me.
"Here’s what is the elephant in the room. Travis had a bag before. Now everyone has a bag. The Travis Ford recruiting prowess was greatly exaggerated."---SLU fan explaining how NIL took away Ford's recruiting edge
Early in the Weekend, I watched 30 for 30 episode: "One and Not Done" about that Judas of college bb, JC. Give the devil his due, no hypocrite he - Calapari is absolutely honest about his goals, methods and ethics - he recruits poor kids he believes can play one year at Kentucky and thereafter make big bucks in the NBA. With this very select student, Coach Cal teaches in the one, exclusive school room that he deems relevant - the practice court. Cal doesn't want any time wasted learning anything beyond boxing out on rebounds or getting squared up on ball hander defense. Cal is not indifferent to "book learnin", he is actively hostile to it.
Classy show, which completely endorses JC as one of the best ever to serve the underclasses of ghetto America, finishes up its canonization of Coach Cal with his Induction Service at the College BB Hall of Fame.
Almost jumped out of my den recliner before saying a prayer of thankfulness; I'm with Lefty yet again - as neither of us would want to belong to any club that admits John Calapari to its membership. It's Easter, so I am seeking some forgiveness in my heart - nah, Long Live the Old Left Hander, who stands alone in defiance of the false prophets.
Classy show, which completely endorses JC as one of the best ever to serve the underclasses of ghetto America, finishes up its canonization of Coach Cal with his Induction Service at the College BB Hall of Fame.
Almost jumped out of my den recliner before saying a prayer of thankfulness; I'm with Lefty yet again - as neither of us would want to belong to any club that admits John Calapari to its membership. It's Easter, so I am seeking some forgiveness in my heart - nah, Long Live the Old Left Hander, who stands alone in defiance of the false prophets.
All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for men of good will to do nothing. Eddie Burke
Esse Quam Videri
Esse Quam Videri
Research shows that people are really poor judges of risk. Experience too. Upsets happen. Bettors generally fail to appreciate the impact of a number of contests in decreasing the odds of a championship.catnhat wrote:Money bet on Cleveland has at least one BIG plus. The Cavs don't have to play GS or SA or Houston to reach the finals. At most they must beat one of the best four teams to win it all. SA or Houston will have to beat 3 of the 4. GS will have to beat 2.
Assuming Cleveland has an 80% chance of reaching the Eastern finals, and an 80% chance of winning the East if they reach the finals, and only a 40% chance of winning the title against one of the West's big 3, they have slightly better than a 25% chance to win it all.
Assuming SA and Houston have a 49% chance of reaching the Western finals, and a 40% chance of beating the Dubs in the West, and a 60% chance of winning the finals if they get there, they each have about a 12% chance to win it all.
Assuming GS has at least a 90% chance of getting to the Western finals and a 60% chance of winning the West if they reach the finals and a 60% chance of winning the finals if they get there, they have about a 33% chance to win it all.
Obviously one can quarrel with the assumptions used, but use any reasonable numbers you want and Cleveland has a better chance to win it all than do the western underdogs.
A 90% chance to win is considered equal to a sure thing. Heck, 80% is for most fans. But an 80% favorite in each of 4 straight series is only a 41% chance to be champ.
Hey, we could do a MATH thread on it. Lorenz and the butterfly effect. I'm sure it would be chaotic.
"Then they started making 3s. A lot of 3s. We're talking more 3s than a bad dating site."
Redneck Epitaphstan wrote: Research shows that people are really poor judges of risk.
Roadside crosses
A tree that wouldn't move
You can still see tire tracks
Somebody lost the groove
Quarter-mile straightaway
At the end a little twist
Redneck epitaph:
“Hey y'all, watch this!”
And it's sure-fire can't-miss
And blow a kiss
Yeah it's sure-fire can't-miss
Hey y'all watch this
Forty balloons and a lawn chair
Now wouldn't that be cool?
It's a triple flip and a belly flop
From the balcony to the pool
Get the fireworks, get the guns
And meet me in the yard
Redneck epitaph:
“Live fast, die hard!”
And it's sure-fire can't-miss
And blow a kiss
Yeah it's sure-fire can't-miss
Hey y'all watch this
You wake up every morning
Sleep walk through your daze
You need a little something
To break out of the haze
Sometimes you get to thinking
You'd rather be dead than bored
So tamp it down and fire it up
Haul ass and get on board
And it's sure-fire can't-miss
And blow a kiss
Yeah it's sure-fire can't-miss...
Call Momma and Daddy
Get Grandpa too
Fetch Uncle Bud
This one's for you!
Got the camcorder ready?
Whoo-hoo-hoo!
Yeah it's sure-fire can't-miss
Hey y'all watch this!
"There ain't no sanity clause!" Chico Marx