Tournament seeding compared to Warren Nolan
Posted: Wed Mar 20, 2024 8:21 pm
Warren Nolan has spent a long time tinkering w his formula. His results are pretty good.
The NCAA Tournament Committee has been accused of major conference bias by folks like us, who support teams outside the P5 plus Big East.
Comparing Nolan’s ratings to tournament seedings shows some discrepancies.
First, “overrated” teams:
9. Tie, Kansas- 4 seed, rated #27 by WN (7 seed) and Wisconsin- 5 seed, #31 (8 seed).
8. Michigan State- 9 seed, #48 (12 seed).
7. BYU- 6 seed, #37 (10 seed).
6. Texas- 7 seed, #43 (11 seed).
5. UVa- 10 seed, #59 (out of tournament).
3. Tie, Miss St- 8 seed, #53 (out of tournament) and TCU- 9 seed, #57 (out of tournament).
2. Northwestern- 9 seed, #58 (out of tournament).
1. Clemson- 6 seed, #63 (out of tournament).
Second, “ underrated” teams that made the tournament:
4. Tie, CofC- 13 seed, #33 (9 seed) and James Madison- 12 seed, #29 (8 seed).
2. Tie, New Mexico- 11 seed, #24 (6 seed) and Drake- 10 seed, #20 (5 seed).
1. Nevada- 10 seed, #19 (5 seed).
Third, “underrated” teams that missed the tournament:
5. Princeton, #51.
4. St. John’s, #50.
3. Indiana State, #46
2. South Florida, #45
1. Pitt, #34.
Last, St. Mary’s (#9) and Gonzaga (#12) would be 3 seeds instead of 5 seeds and would not play a 1 seed until the regional finals. If all goes to form they will play a 12, 4, and 1 instead of a 14, 6, and 2.
The NCAA Tournament Committee has been accused of major conference bias by folks like us, who support teams outside the P5 plus Big East.
Comparing Nolan’s ratings to tournament seedings shows some discrepancies.
First, “overrated” teams:
9. Tie, Kansas- 4 seed, rated #27 by WN (7 seed) and Wisconsin- 5 seed, #31 (8 seed).
8. Michigan State- 9 seed, #48 (12 seed).
7. BYU- 6 seed, #37 (10 seed).
6. Texas- 7 seed, #43 (11 seed).
5. UVa- 10 seed, #59 (out of tournament).
3. Tie, Miss St- 8 seed, #53 (out of tournament) and TCU- 9 seed, #57 (out of tournament).
2. Northwestern- 9 seed, #58 (out of tournament).
1. Clemson- 6 seed, #63 (out of tournament).
Second, “ underrated” teams that made the tournament:
4. Tie, CofC- 13 seed, #33 (9 seed) and James Madison- 12 seed, #29 (8 seed).
2. Tie, New Mexico- 11 seed, #24 (6 seed) and Drake- 10 seed, #20 (5 seed).
1. Nevada- 10 seed, #19 (5 seed).
Third, “underrated” teams that missed the tournament:
5. Princeton, #51.
4. St. John’s, #50.
3. Indiana State, #46
2. South Florida, #45
1. Pitt, #34.
Last, St. Mary’s (#9) and Gonzaga (#12) would be 3 seeds instead of 5 seeds and would not play a 1 seed until the regional finals. If all goes to form they will play a 12, 4, and 1 instead of a 14, 6, and 2.