DavidsonCats.com

Wednesday, our place, 7 pm, go Cats. We'll be underdogs. We're 9-6 at home, 7-6 against D1 opponents. Pull the upset and we'll secure a winning D1 home record.

Hopefully a trap game for Loyola after their big win Friday night

I'm seriously considering bringing the dreaded Scottish Tam out of my closet and wearing it to the game. Gotta do something to reverse this curse of losing close games in the closing minutes.

Maybe burning the Tam in the parking lot pregame will help?

Massey says we're winning. 87 at 122. 61%. 69-66.
https://masseyratings.com/cb2024/2069

Vegas will disagree. We'll be underdogs by 2 or 3.

I get the home field advantage thing, but it's hard to understand why we should be favored in this game.

Anyone who watched Loyola beat Dayton last Friday night probably wouldn't think we should be favored.

I guess it's because the home court has been so good to us this year against upper tier A10 teams.

Numbers. Most rating algorithms like Massey or Kenpom use comparative scores and link all the games together to factor in strength of opponents. KP, for example, shows DC with a 58% chance against Loyola, 68-66, very close to Massey. Most oddsmakers use very similar algorithms.

The Massey prediction for a game where 87 is at 122 but 122 is favored happens because the Massey "rating" which scores Loyola at 87 and the Cats at 122 is not the algorithm Massey uses for predictions. The "rating" factors in wins, which Loyola has a lot of and we don't. But the power rating, which Massey uses for predictions, shows the game as 105 at 104 - yes the Cats are one spot ahead - hence the prediction that is basically homecourt advantage.

Analysts (starting in my knowledge with Bill James) have determined that the binary of winning and losing doesn't add predictive value. At the very least, it is very small across a large sample and there's no way to reliably measure what's luck and what's win/lose execution.

Oddsmakers have to use algorithms because they have to set a lot of lines. Savvy bettors can use information that is not factored in to change their expectation. Usually that is something simple like an injury, but it could be an unobserved tendency to win or lose games.

"Usually that is something simple like an injury, but it could be an unobserved tendency to win or lose games."

Got a chuckle out of this line when applied to Davidson this season. I would say that the Cat's tendency has been observed quite frequently by those on this board.

I don’t think anyone benefits from me being critical of the Cats, but yes I was implying that local knowledge of the Cats’ performance in close games might suggest a betting strategy

Damn right.

The computer wins

Vegas says Cats by 1.5

I don't bet, but I would put money on Loyola if I had to bet, this should mean the Cats win.

Box Out & Rebound

New York Post published its Loyola game point spread giving a one point advantage to the Ramblers. Gees, just what those guys need, more motivation from Las Vegas. Incredible. Go Cats!

otherwildcat wrote: ↑

Wed Mar 06, 2024 8:20 am

Box Out & Rebound

And bend your knees.