Up next: Loyola
Up next: Loyola
Wednesday, our place, 7 pm, go Cats. We'll be underdogs. We're 9-6 at home, 7-6 against D1 opponents. Pull the upset and we'll secure a winning D1 home record.
"Here’s what is the elephant in the room. Travis had a bag before. Now everyone has a bag. The Travis Ford recruiting prowess was greatly exaggerated."---SLU fan explaining how NIL took away Ford's recruiting edge
Re: Up next: Loyola
Hopefully a trap game for Loyola after their big win Friday night
"Statistics are like bikinis. They show a lot, but they don't show everything." - Bob McKillop
Re: Up next: Loyola
I'm seriously considering bringing the dreaded Scottish Tam out of my closet and wearing it to the game. Gotta do something to reverse this curse of losing close games in the closing minutes.
“Yeah, well, you know, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.”
"I can't be worrying about that sh*t. Life goes on, man."
- Jeff Bridges as The Dude in "The Big Lebowski"
"I can't be worrying about that sh*t. Life goes on, man."
- Jeff Bridges as The Dude in "The Big Lebowski"
Re: Up next: Loyola
Maybe burning the Tam in the parking lot pregame will help? 
Re: Up next: Loyola
Massey says we're winning. 87 at 122. 61%. 69-66.
https://masseyratings.com/cb2024/2069
Vegas will disagree. We'll be underdogs by 2 or 3.
https://masseyratings.com/cb2024/2069
Vegas will disagree. We'll be underdogs by 2 or 3.
"Here’s what is the elephant in the room. Travis had a bag before. Now everyone has a bag. The Travis Ford recruiting prowess was greatly exaggerated."---SLU fan explaining how NIL took away Ford's recruiting edge
Re: Up next: Loyola
I get the home field advantage thing, but it's hard to understand why we should be favored in this game.
"There ain't no sanity clause!" Chico Marx
Re: Up next: Loyola
Anyone who watched Loyola beat Dayton last Friday night probably wouldn't think we should be favored.
I guess it's because the home court has been so good to us this year against upper tier A10 teams.
I guess it's because the home court has been so good to us this year against upper tier A10 teams.
Re: Up next: Loyola
Numbers. Most rating algorithms like Massey or Kenpom use comparative scores and link all the games together to factor in strength of opponents. KP, for example, shows DC with a 58% chance against Loyola, 68-66, very close to Massey. Most oddsmakers use very similar algorithms.
The Massey prediction for a game where 87 is at 122 but 122 is favored happens because the Massey "rating" which scores Loyola at 87 and the Cats at 122 is not the algorithm Massey uses for predictions. The "rating" factors in wins, which Loyola has a lot of and we don't. But the power rating, which Massey uses for predictions, shows the game as 105 at 104 - yes the Cats are one spot ahead - hence the prediction that is basically homecourt advantage.
Analysts (starting in my knowledge with Bill James) have determined that the binary of winning and losing doesn't add predictive value. At the very least, it is very small across a large sample and there's no way to reliably measure what's luck and what's win/lose execution.
Oddsmakers have to use algorithms because they have to set a lot of lines. Savvy bettors can use information that is not factored in to change their expectation. Usually that is something simple like an injury, but it could be an unobserved tendency to win or lose games.
The Massey prediction for a game where 87 is at 122 but 122 is favored happens because the Massey "rating" which scores Loyola at 87 and the Cats at 122 is not the algorithm Massey uses for predictions. The "rating" factors in wins, which Loyola has a lot of and we don't. But the power rating, which Massey uses for predictions, shows the game as 105 at 104 - yes the Cats are one spot ahead - hence the prediction that is basically homecourt advantage.
Analysts (starting in my knowledge with Bill James) have determined that the binary of winning and losing doesn't add predictive value. At the very least, it is very small across a large sample and there's no way to reliably measure what's luck and what's win/lose execution.
Oddsmakers have to use algorithms because they have to set a lot of lines. Savvy bettors can use information that is not factored in to change their expectation. Usually that is something simple like an injury, but it could be an unobserved tendency to win or lose games.
Re: Up next: Loyola
"Usually that is something simple like an injury, but it could be an unobserved tendency to win or lose games."
Got a chuckle out of this line when applied to Davidson this season. I would say that the Cat's tendency has been observed quite frequently by those on this board.
Got a chuckle out of this line when applied to Davidson this season. I would say that the Cat's tendency has been observed quite frequently by those on this board.
Re: Up next: Loyola
I don’t think anyone benefits from me being critical of the Cats, but yes I was implying that local knowledge of the Cats’ performance in close games might suggest a betting strategy 
Re: Up next: Loyola
The computer wins
Vegas says Cats by 1.5
I don't bet, but I would put money on Loyola if I had to bet, this should mean the Cats win.
Vegas says Cats by 1.5
I don't bet, but I would put money on Loyola if I had to bet, this should mean the Cats win.
Re: Up next: Loyola
New York Post published its Loyola game point spread giving a one point advantage to the Ramblers. Gees, just what those guys need, more motivation from Las Vegas. Incredible. Go Cats!
All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for men of good will to do nothing. Eddie Burke
Esse Quam Videri
Esse Quam Videri
-
DC69Wildcat
- Posts: 9421
- Joined: Sun Dec 10, 2006 7:09 pm
- Location: Concord, NC
Re: Up next: Loyola
And bend your knees.
"We were in the center ring the whole night,'' longtime Davidson coach Bob McKillop said. ''We were not on the ropes. We were not on the mat. We were in the center ring slugging away, and we just ran out of time.''