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Acorn
Joined: 08 Dec 2005
Posts: 2649
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 Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:30 pm Post subject: Predictions? Wichita State |
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Anyone want to predict the outcomes for today's game against Wichita State?
90% final score differential range (range in which you'd expect the final score differential to fall nine out of ten times):
75% final score differential range:
50% final score differential range:
25% final score differential range:
Last time we did this (Cleveland State game), BDF and I hit on each of our predictions, suggesting we might have been underconfident in our predictive abilities.
My predictions for Wichita State:
90% final score differential range: Davidson â€"25 to Davidson +20
75% final score differential range: Davidson â€"16 to Davidson +14
50% final score differential range: Davidson â€"10 to Davidson +10
25% final score differential range: Davidson â€"7 to Davidson +5
I'm looking at the middle range of my expectations. I suppose you could also look at the Davidson-friendly tail. In that case, here are my predictions:
90% final score differential range: Davidson â€"20 (that is, I'm predicting Davidson would lose by more than twenty 10% of the time if this game were played an infinite number of times)
75% final score differential range: Davidson â€"10
50% final score differential range: Davidson â€"3
25% final score differential range: Davidson +10 |
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rbarney
Joined: 29 Dec 2007
Posts: 4908
Location: Upstate New York
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| Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 12:36 pm Post subject: Wichita State |
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| Saw in our local newspaper that Wichita is favored by 1 point. I suspect that came from AP. |
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Jay Catsby
Joined: 28 Jul 2017
Posts: 40
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| Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 1:12 pm Post subject: Re: Wichita State |
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| rbarney wrote: | | Saw in our local newspaper that Wichita is favored by 1 point. I suspect that came from AP. |
Early lines were Wichita -1 or even. Most Vegas lines have moved considerably today to Davidson -3 or -3.5. It seems the gambling public likes our chances better than the bookmakers. Though all of it still points to a close & competitive game. |
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DC69Wildcat
Joined: 10 Dec 2006
Posts: 5057
Location: Concord, NC
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| Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 3:43 pm Post subject: Re: Wichita State |
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[quote="Jay Catsby"] | rbarney wrote: | | Early lines were Wichita -1 or even. Most Vegas lines have moved considerably today to Davidson -3 or -3.5. It seems the gambling public likes our chances better than the bookmakers. |
Courtesy of Dave Flemming perhaps?
_________________
"We should've thrown our number 7 pitcher against Davidson......" Post by Tar Heel baseball fan 16 minutes into the game. |
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BDF
Joined: 24 Jan 2012
Posts: 4137
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| Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 6:35 pm Post subject: |
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90% final score differential range: Davidson â€"27 to Davidson +18
75% final score differential range: Davidson â€"16 to Davidson +14
50% final score differential range: Davidson â€"12 to Davidson +10
25% final score differential range: Davidson â€"3 to Davidson +7
I was trying to say I think we are more likely to win a close one but they are more likely to win a blowout. Hope I did this right reflect that.
The other time I did this the score fell in my 25% range, so this one should not, though it’s a small sample, correct?
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This is a post by BDF, not BDL. |
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BDF
Joined: 24 Jan 2012
Posts: 4137
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| Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 9:51 pm Post subject: |
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| BDF wrote: | 90% final score differential range: Davidson â€"27 to Davidson +18
75% final score differential range: Davidson â€"16 to Davidson +14
50% final score differential range: Davidson â€"12 to Davidson +10
25% final score differential range: Davidson â€"3 to Davidson +7
I was trying to say I think we are more likely to win a close one but they are more likely to win a blowout. Hope I did this right reflect that.
The other time I did this the score fell in my 25% range, so this one should not, though it’s a small sample, correct? |
I’m going to have to start narrowing my 25% range.
_________________
This is a post by BDF, not BDL. |
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MikeMaloy15
Joined: 26 Feb 2006
Posts: 11345
Location: Salisbury, N.C.
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| Posted: Thu Nov 15, 2018 10:11 pm Post subject: |
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One site I saw had the line at Davidson -4.0 at tip.
Pretty much on the mark.
Trivia: When unranked Davidson ended top ten-ranked Ohio State's years long home winning streak in Columbus early in the 1963-64 season, it did so as a Vegas favorite. |
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rbarney
Joined: 29 Dec 2007
Posts: 4908
Location: Upstate New York
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| Posted: Fri Nov 16, 2018 10:35 am Post subject: Predictions |
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| It looks like most prognosticators had this pretty much correct, within 3 points in either direction. |
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